Atlantic Canada Storm Prep & El Niño 2023
NOAA forecasts a 60 % chance that El Niño arrives by autumn 2023. Living Shoreline methods help protect exposed coastal soils and slow the processes of erosion during storm season.
El Niño Southern Oscillation
(lasts 9 – 12 months, occurs every 2 – 7 years)
Earth experiences numerous cycles all the time; day and night, seasons, moon and tidal cycles to name a few. We are accustomed to each of these cycles, they occur around us all the time. Typically, it takes something different or new for us to take notice; something out of the normal that leaves destruction behind.
Typical Wind Movement – the Coriolis Effect
Typically, air in the Northern Hemisphere moves southwest and air in the Southern Hemisphere moves northwest and meets at the equator. The wind continues to blow from east to west across the equator. The movement of westward moving air is known as trade winds. Trade winds blow westerly across the Pacific Ocean, carrying warm water from the coasts of South America to Asia.
As warm water is blown across the Pacific, cool water rises to the surface. The cool water becomes oxygenated and continues moving across the Pacific towards warmer water. This replenishing cycle is known as upwelling, carrying oxygen and phytoplankton-rich water to warmer areas of the ocean.
Coriolis Effect © 2023 Earth How
Why do we think El Nino is on the way?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 60 % chance that El Nino arrives by autumn 2023.
Past scientific tracking from the 1950s to present day shows no greater than a four-year gap between El Nino events. If 2023 doesn’t get an El Nino event, it will be the first time since the 1950s with a greater gap than four years.
El Nino, what is it?
El Nino is not a new concept, it has been happening and witnessed by humans for many years. It has been in the media, researched by scientists and talked about by environmentalists. El Nino occurs every 2 – 7 years when climate patterns increase, and ocean temperatures rise higher than normal. This cycle typically lasts from 9 to 12 months and sometimes even years.
During El Nino, trade winds are weakened and ocean water that is typically carried westerly from South America to Asia, stays in place. The water that stays in place becomes much warmer and less oxygenated over time, limiting a viable habitat for phytoplankton. Many fish and other marine species depend on phytoplankton for food. The depletion of such food causes the migration of animals in search of such, or they stay in place and perish.
Scientists predict 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest years on record.
Higher air temperatures and wind will lead to drought, ultimately impacting the viability of agricultural crops creating famine and marine life death such as coral reefs.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts we will witness the most drastic effects of everything mentioned above, in 2024.
What does El Nino have to do with Atlantic Canada?
Even though El Nino develops in the Pacific Ocean, changing wind patterns still have a strong influence on Atlantic Canada. El Nino also causes the Pacific Jet stream to move south, which makes Canada and the northern United States become warmer and dryer.
Global warming also adds to the rise in air and water temperature due to the increased CO2 trapped in the atmosphere. The combination of all warming processes acts like a global catalyst, increasing the quantity and intensity of storms.
Warmer ocean temperatures will have negative effects on aquatic plants and animals. Cyanobacteria (blue green algae) will have the perfect incubator to flourish and multiply leading to more lake eutrophication and more sources of unsafe drinking water.
Storm Predictions for 2023
NOAA believes with 70% confidence that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season may include one to four storms of category 3, 4 or 5.
We are all familiar with the devastating effects we experienced last September from post-tropical storm Fiona. As indicated in Kalin Mitchell’s CTV news article Kalin’s Call, Fiona was a category 4 hurricane near the Bahamas then downgraded to a post-tropical storm prior to hitting Sable Island. Mitchell says, “Fiona re-intensified between Sable Island and the Eastern Shore of Nova Scotia”. Peak wind was felt near Arisaig at 179 km/hr with 140 mm of rain.
NOAA
How our clients suffered
Many of our valued clients experienced significant damage, along the Northumberland Strait in particular. Northshore clients were left with downed trees, power and utility lines for several days, some up to two weeks.
Clients from Prince Edward Island lost the stability of their cottage when wind and waves ripped off the front section of their cottage amongst devouring tens of meters of their land.
During the days following Fiona, our HNH team checked in on the well-being of our clients and we started to receive phone calls and email images showing the aftermath. We felt disheartened hearing story after story of projects just swept away. Miraculously, some Living Shoreline projects did remain standing with patches that were removed and in need of ecological landscaping first aid.
What we did next?
Post storm site visits and shoreline amending kept us busy for the fall of 2022. We wanted desperately to reinstall projects. The areas which were too large to tackle during the last few weeks prior to winter were wrapped in burlap, secured to the slopes and banks with stakes and woven brush limbs.
What can you do to protect your property this fall?
Call or email Helping Nature Heal for a site visit quote so we can come spend some time with you and collect all pertinent information about your individual property. We are shoreline experts, and we know what to look for on your property that may become a problem for you during the upcoming harsh storm season, winter months, fall and spring freeze/thaw activity.
We are eager to help hold your pre-existing landscape securely in place and make any additional plans for your upcoming 2024 Living Shoreline and Upland project installations. We are passionate about our clients and the environment and look forward to helping you!
Monitoring Horizontal Retreat (Drone Survey)
When we implement a monitoring plan, we can keep track of the amount of land lost and the time it took to disappear. Collecting data at consistent time intervals and locations allows us to compare quantitative data of horizontal retreat and determine methods to extend the lifetime of the coastal property. This service can be done in conjunction with the initial site visit or as a standalone option, measuring only the horizontal retreat on your shoreline.
Please find our zoned price estimates for our drone site visits below.
Helping Nature Heal would be happy to hear from you if you are interested in an on-site consultation. Please reach out to Dawn at dawn@helpingnatureheal.com to schedule a Zoom call to see how we can help heal your land.